How to Tell Whether a Political Poll Is Reliable

filed under: politics, video

If you’ve glanced at the news this election season (so like, the last two years), you’ve probably found yourself bombarded with election polls. But not all polls are created equal. We the Voters, a video-heavy voter education project from the documentary company Show of Force and the social impact-focused Vulcan Productions, has two polling experts explain just what makes a good poll in the video above.

All polls are conducted with an angle in mind, and sometimes, that angle isn’t just to figure out what the electorate is thinking. Many newspaper polls tend to be more neutral, because news organizations have the public interest in mind, but partisan news organizations also conduct polls that might have more of a bias. Campaigns, too, conduct their own polls, in part to figure out what’s driving different groups of voters.

Good polls survey a random, wide sample of likely voters. The questions themselves matter, too, since some questions can lead respondents toward a certain answer in the next question. We the Voters has some metaphors that help you understand exactly how this works.

Even the best polls are only estimates of public opinion, and Election Day will always bring some surprises. President Obama’s 2012 campaign manager, Jim Messina, writes in The New York Times that many election campaigns don’t even bother with national polls, opting instead to target specific groups of voters they deem likely to support their candidate (say, young Cuban American voters in Florida) and remind them to show up to vote. Public polls “often use conversations with just a few hundred people to make predictions about the entire electorate,” he explains. “Getting a truly representative sample has become ever more difficult because of the growing percentage of households with only cellphones, the number of voters who prefer to speak a language other than English, and the difficulty in contacting younger voters, who generally don’t have landlines.”

Unfortunately, we, the anxious voters eager to suss out our favorite candidate’s chances, don’t have access to a campaign’s voter data. Until November 8, all we have to go on is polls, but at least there are some helpful hints when it comes to figuring out which ones to trust.

[h/t Digg]

Images: iStock


November 3, 2016 – 12:30pm

Newsletter Item for (88221): 13 Sharp Facts About ‘Hook’

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13 Sharp Facts About Hook

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It might be hard to imagine anyone other than Robin Williams assuming the role of Peter Pan
in Steven Spielberg’s cult favorite Hook. However, that lead part almost fell into the hands of Michael Jackson, Spielberg’s first choice for the 1991 film.

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13 Sharp Facts About 'Hook'

Newsletter Item for (88262): How You Sleep May Be Genetic

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How You Sleep May Be Genetic
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New research indicates that your insomnia, need for extra-long slumber, and the number of dreams you have might be written into your genetic code.

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How You Sleep May Be Genetic

Newsletter Item for (87246): 12 Oversized Facts About JNCO Jeans

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12 Oversized Facts About JNCO Jeans

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Though they enjoyed only fleeting relevance, JNCOs—the quintessentially ’90s jeans, marked by their mega-wide leg openings—have been immortalized through regular nostalgia-fueled posts and Onion punchlines. Here are 12 facts about the brand that is back with new investors and a whole new target demographic. (You guessed it: adults.)

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12 Oversized Facts About JNCO Jeans

Newsletter Item for (87625): A Brief History of the Chain Letter

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A Brief History of the Chain Letter

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Chain letters haven’t always been about money or bad luck. In fact, some of them have urged people to pass on underpants. This is a brief history of the evolving art form.

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History
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A Brief History of the Chain Letter

The Science of Earworms (Lady Gaga, We’re Looking at You)

filed under: music, science
Image credit: 
iStock

You didn’t plan to have Katy Perry stuck in your head all day. It just happened, and now you’re a prisoner in your own treacherous, pop music–blasting mind. Never fear: We have answers. A study published today in the journal Psychology of Aesthetics, Creativity and the Arts [PDF] identifies the features that transform certain songs into earworms—and even offers tips for their extraction.

Scientists call this experience involuntary musical imagery, or INMI. Previous studies have suggested certain traits [PDF] that make a song ideal INMI fodder. First, it’s familiar; songs we’ve heard many times before are the ones most likely to jam in our brains. Second, it’s sing-able. So far, that’s really all we know. But researchers remain on the case.

In 2012, researchers in Finland and the UK conducted simultaneous surveys inviting their compatriots to complain about the songs that haunted them the most. The latter survey, called The Earwormery, amassed responses from 5989 disgruntled Brits. It was conducted by researchers from Goldsmiths, University of London, four of whom are co-authors on the current study.

For the current study, they pulled the responses of 3000 of those respondents and analyzed them for trends. They then identified 100 of the worst offenders and sorted them based on 83 different musical parameters, including length, melody, pitch range, and commercial success.

The songs most commonly found wiggling around in British brains had quite a few things in common. They were typically pretty fast pop songs, and their melodies were fairly generic, yet each one had a little something, like an unusual tonal interval or a repetition, that set it apart from others on the charts and made it stickier.

The top 9 list of wormiest tracks revealed a couple of other trends. See if you can spot them here:

1. “Bad Romance,” Lady Gaga

2. “Can’t Get You Out of My Head,” Kylie Minogue

3. “Don’t Stop Believing,” Journey

4. “Somebody That I Used to Know,” Gotye

5. “Moves Like Jagger,” Maroon 5

6. “California Gurls,” Katy Perry

7. “Bohemian Rhapsody,” Queen

8. “Alejandro,” Lady Gaga

9. “Poker Face,” Lady Gaga

Only one of those artists is even British—and three of them are Lady Gaga.

These results are specific to UK survey respondents, as are the musical qualities that inspired them. It’s probable that stickiness is cultural; what’s sticky in Mozambique may glide in one Japanese person’s ear and out the other, and vice versa.

The researchers say their research could be beneficial for those in music-related industries. “You can, to some extent, predict which songs are going to get stuck in people’s heads based on the song’s melodic content,” lead author Kelly Jakubowski, a music psychologist at Goldsmiths, University of London, said in a statement. “This could help aspiring songwriters or advertisers write a jingle everyone will remember for days or months afterwards.”

Still, we’re not completely helpless. The researchers offer three tips for extracting an earworm. First, just give in. Listening to the song the entire way through can help get it out of your head. Second, find a musical antidote. The British survey respondents listed “God Save the Queen” as the best way to shake an earworm, but we’d like to recommend James Brown’s “Sexmachine.” (Trust us. It works.)

Finally, stop worrying about it. Like a little splinter or an errant eyelash, that Lady Gaga will likely work its way out all on its own.


November 3, 2016 – 12:01pm

10 Behind-the-Scenes Secrets of Zoos

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Zoos are a constantly evolving workplace. Over the past 50 years, exhibits have gotten increasingly naturalistic, diets for certain species have become more standardized, and captive breeding programs have turned into nationwide campaigns. Yet if one thing’s remained constant, it’s the fact that keeping the animals in our zoos both happy and healthy requires a great deal of time, coordination, expense, and old-fashioned willpower. It’s not an easy job, but most zookeepers say they wouldn’t trade it for the world.

1. PANDAS ARE VERY, VERY EXPENSIVE.

Giant pandas are one of the biggest draws for zoos that manage to snag a pair. But the big mammals also come with an extremely high price tag. Famously finicky, they dine almost exclusively on bamboo. Since these plants don’t offer much in the way of nutritional value, pandas need to consume about 26 to 84 pounds of them every day. Maintaining a fresh supply is a costly endeavor, especially for zoos located in cooler areas where bamboo doesn’t grow as well. The Toronto Zoo, for example, spends $500,000 CDN per year (about $370,000 US) flying in bamboo from a Memphis-based supplier.

Food-related expenses are just the tip of the iceberg: China’s government effectively maintains a global panda monopoly. To put one of these rare, in-demand critters on display, a foreign zoo must lease it from the Chinese for a full decade. During this period, an annual payment has to be made—and the going rate is sky-high. For example, the Edinburgh Zoo is currently paying £600,000 (about $740,000) per year for its resident pair. Across the pond, the Smithsonian’s National Zoo in Washington, D.C. shells out $550,000 annually in order to keep two adult pandas. By the way, if one of those bamboo-eaters should die because of some human error, China will administer a roughly $400,000 fine.

2. KEEPERS WARN EACH OTHER ABOUT GUESTS WHO DON’T FOLLOW THE RULES.

Using clearly marked signs, zoos warn their guests not to do certain things that might harm the animals. Unfortunately, some people ignore these notices. Glass-tapping is a particularly common offense. While it might not seem like a big deal to human patrons, this can really stress out captive creatures. “Imagine if somebody’s knocking on your living room window all the time,” Bruce Beehler of the Milwaukee County Zoo says. “I think you would be annoyed.” He adds that tossing coins—or, indeed, anything else—into an animal’s enclosure is another big no-no. Not only can these bits of currency get swallowed, they’re also liable to contaminate an animal’s water supply.

When mental_floss interviewed Bob, Terry, and Nancy*—three keepers who work at a zoo in the southern U.S.—and asked them to name their biggest job-related pet peeve, all three cited rule-breaking visitors. “Read signs and listen to keepers,” Bob implores. “If I ask you not to tap the glass, don’t tell me it’s just for fun and you can tap the glass all you like. If a keeper asks you not to stand your child on the railing of an animal’s enclosure, do not put them down and then wait ‘till we walk away. When we see anyone doing something that endangers our animals, we do follow you.”

Security guards are on hand to remove those who ignore repeat warnings. Additionally, zoo staffers will often use their radios to tip each other off about problematic visitors. “Depending on where they are, we might alert the next area down the line,” Nancy explains. “We’ll say ‘Hey, I saw these people disturbing the animals in this area and they’re heading towards your area. Keep your eyes open.’ Each area will then make the call about how serious the situation is and whether they should call security.”

Nancy also told us that she’s personally had to discourage patrons from, among other things, throwing food at gorillas and dropping various objects (money, juice boxes, etc.) into the alligator pool. It should go without saying, but the posted rules are there for a reason. Respect the animals’ homes and you’ll have a more enjoyable visit.

3. LOTS OF ZOO ANIMALS AREN’T ON PUBLIC DISPLAY.

Purchase a standard zoo ticket and you’ll get to see most of the critters in their collection. But you can bet that at least a handful of specimens will be kept from view, stowed away in backroom terrariums or birdcages. “Animals live behind the scenes for a number of reasons,” Terry says. Some of these so-called “off-exhibit” creatures are used for educational purposes, including occasional public shows and private birthday parties. By utilizing animals that most visitors never see, staffers can put together a live creature presentation without emptying any displays in the process.

Nancy adds that the newborn offspring of breeding animals are also sometimes withheld from the public. “If your zoo is breeding a given species,” she says, “then it’s likely that the species is already well-represented in your displays. So you wouldn’t need to put all of the babies in the public viewing areas. Visitors might like to see one or two burrowing frogs, but there’d be no point in having an entire wall full of them.” A good percentage of these unseen infants will probably end up getting shipped off to other zoos.

For the record, certain departments hide their critters more frequently than others do. “Reptile, aquarium, and maybe bird areas are most likely to have larger numbers of animals behind the scenes,” Terry says. “It’s easier to house and hold many small animals than large ones … not a lot of places [have] off-exhibit elephants!”

4. TRANSFERRING ANIMALS BETWEEN ZOOS INVOLVES A LOT OF PAPERWORK.

Bob says that when an animal goes from one zoo to another, a “ton of paperwork” usually travels with it. These documents are loaded with need-to-know details about the critter’s health issues, behavioral tendencies, and the amount of training it’s received.

Unhelpfully, new beasts that aren’t acquired from other zoos seldom come with comprehensive paperwork. “Sometimes their history is a mystery,” Bob admits. “Many zoos will get animals through confiscation from Fish and Wildlife services. I’ve even met a South American tamandua [a genus of anteater] who was found walking the streets of Houston!” Over the years, Bob’s also worked with a cougar that had previously been a school mascot, as well as two bobcats believed to have been escaped pets.

In any event, zoos subject all new acquisitions to a mandatory quarantine period. Usually, this lasts anywhere from 30 to 60 days and may take place in an isolated enclosure or at the zoo hospital. “This is to make sure they bring no ailments or parasites to the general zoo population,” Bob says. “If they do show signs it is treated. Once that passes, then the animal is taken to its appropriate new home within the zoo.”

5. FEEDING THE ANIMALS ISN’T EASY (OR CHEAP).

Zoos have high standards when it comes to the quality of their residents’ food. “We’re probably pickier than some restaurants. We have to be very careful because we’re dealing with endangered animals and animals we want to reproduce and live long lives,” Kerri Slifka, the Dallas Zoo’s curator of nutrition, told the Dallas Morning News last year. Nowadays, a growing number of zoos are hiring full-time animal nutritionists to make sure that their critters receive the healthiest possible diets.

Furthermore, in recent decades there’s been a big push to standardize the meal plans for certain species. (For example, the Association of Zoos and Aquariums advises member zoos to feed orangutans a balanced diet consisting of 86 percent produce and 14 percent “nutritionally complete primate biscuits.”) The standardization trend can be traced back to the rise of nationwide breeding programs in the latter half of the 20th century. Under these initiatives, specimens were transferred between different zoos with increasing regularity. As zoological nutritionist Barbara Toddes told the Smithsonian, “Animals need consistency in their diet when they move from place to place. It’s much better for them stress-wise and nutritionally.”

Big appetites are another complicating factor. Consider elephants, which devour 200 to 600 pounds of food every day when fully grown. The cost of feeding a single adult is usually around $15,000 per year. And some animals require specialized diets. In her interview with the Dallas Morning News, Slifka mentioned four Marabou stork chicks that had recently been hatched. In the wild, newborns of this species mostly subsist on the corpses of small animals. To supply its little birds with intact dead prey, the Dallas Zoo paid a pretty penny: By the time the young storks were 110 days old, their food-related expenses had totaled a whopping $10,000.

6. TO PREVENT THEIR CRITTERS FROM GETTING BORED, KEEPERS OFFER WHAT’S KNOWN AS “ENRICHMENT.”

Adequate food and space will keep captive animals alive, but stimulation—both the physical and psychological sort—is what helps them to thrive. “Enrichment” is a process whereby zookeepers prompt their critters into exercising their minds or displaying certain behaviors they’d normally exhibit in the wild. A quick scenery change can make for a good start. At zoos, caretakers occasionally add or remove certain things from their animals’ enclosures, forcing the residents to utilize their natural instincts as they mentally process the alteration. For example, Japanese macaques at the Minnesota Zoo wake up every so often to discover a brand-new leaf pile to dig through. Enrichment can also be aromatic: At Disney World’s Animal Kingdom in Orlando, the staff place various perfumes and spices around their tiger paddock. When confronted with odd new smells, the big cats might respond by rubbing, scratching, or marking their territories.

According to the Fort Worth Zoo, enrichment increases the “behavioral choices available to animals.” Simply put, by changing the status quo, enrichment provides animals with the opportunity to make decisions about how to react. Give an elephant a bright-pink volleyball (as the Columbus Zoo did recently), and he might bat at it with his trunk, kick it through a pond, or try to squish it with his feet.

7. ZOO VETS USUALLY MAKE LESS MONEY THAN REGULAR VETS.

You might think that the opposite would be true, but according to data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the American Veterinary Medical Association, vets who work at zoos have a lower median salary than general veterinarians. Why? To begin with, many AZA-accredited zoos are nonprofit establishments. Therefore, vets who work there don’t always make the sort of income that a private practice might yield. Also, since there are only so many zoos in the world, job opportunities are rather limited.

Still, to hear most zoo vets tell it, you’d be hard-pressed to find a more rewarding career. “[There] is an exciting moment every single day,” says Dr. Suzan Murray of the Smithsonian’s National Zoo. As chief veterinarian, she’s expected to tackle a wide array of fascinating challenges. “Each one is a little bit different, whether it’s coming up with a treatment for coral, diagnosing a problem in a Burmese python, or visiting an elephant we’re hoping is pregnant,” Murray explains. “Every day offers a bounty of surprises.”

8. ANIMALS IN NOCTURNAL EXHIBITS DON’T ADJUST RIGHT AWAY.

Certain zoos have designated nocturnal houses, thick-walled buildings that allow guests to check out bats, bearcats, civets, and other creatures of the night during normal business hours. By day, they’re usually lit with dim red, blue, green, and yellow lights. But late at night, bright white fluorescent bulbs are turned on. This has the effect of reversing the resident animals’ normal sleep cycles so that they’re more active when zoo visitors are around and sleep when the humans do.

For the critters involved, the transition can take time. “When we get animals from a non-nocturnal building, there is an adjustment period,” Bob says. “Most seem to adapt in about a week’s time. We had one [kinkajou, also known as a honey bear], though, that took over a month to adjust.”

9. CAPTIVE BREEDING TAKES CROSS-COUNTRY COORDINATION.

What do Przewalski’s horse, the Arabian oryx, and golden lion tamarin have in common? Without captive breeding efforts—mating orchestrated in controlled environments like zoos and wildlife preserves—they might be critically endangered, or worse.

One of the ways zoos contribute to conservation efforts is by participating in Species Survival Plans (SSPs). Organized by the AZA, these are rigorously regulated breeding programs for rare, threatened, or endangered animals. The goal is to form a genetically diverse captive population, with member animals usually dispersed among several zoos and/or aquariums. In total, there are almost 500 individual SSPs, each headed by a coordinator.

Craig Saffoe, a curator at the National Zoo, leads several different breeding programs for big carnivores, all done in accordance with the appropriate SSP committee. “The first step is that we have to find two animals that actually get along together and are compatible breeding partners,” he says. “For that, we don’t just look at the current collection at the National Zoo. We look at the whole zoo population within the United States.”

Choosing the right pair is a process that involves working closely with the relevant SSP. “When the Species Survival Plan group gets together, they decide what the best route is to keep the entire North American population genetically healthy,” Saffoe notes. “Once my team and I have worked successfully with the SSP to match two animals on paper … it’s our job then to find out if the animals are actually physically compatible.” More often than not, at least one animal will have to be transferred between zoos before any first dates can take place.

10. THE WORD “DEDICATION” WAS INVENTED FOR ZOOKEEPERS.

Make no mistake, this isn’t an easy line of work to break into. Just ask the San Diego Zoo’s HR department, whose employees report that it’s “not unusual” for them to receive literally hundreds of applications when a single animal care job opens up. If you beat the odds and get hired, note that the average American zookeeper takes home a salary of just $29,000 per year.

Despite all this, keepers can rank among the most passionate and devoted people you’ll ever meet. “Just recently when Hurricane Matthew hit, tons of keepers [in affected areas] slept in their zoos, hunkered down in case the animals needed emergency help,” Bob says. In his eyes, such dedication is the rule, rather than the exception. “We go in at two A.M. to check on new moms … We are constantly researching ways to improve welfare and our own personal knowledge.”

What’s more, zookeepers enjoy a tight-knit community. According to Bob, “Everyone knows someone who works at another zoo and on Facebook, everyone is so supportive. There are closed groups of keepers where new ideas are constantly exchanged and people help support strangers when they lose an old, beloved animal. What we do is so hard and stressful and you always have to fight caregiver stress syndrome, but we power through and I wouldn’t trade this life for anything!”

*Some names have been changed.

All photos via iStock.


November 3, 2016 – 12:00pm

‘The Chicago Tribune’ Shares Their Cover From the 1908 Cubs Win

Image credit: 

Wikimedia Commons // Public Domain

If you’ve browsed the internet, turned on a TV, or been to the Chicago area recently, you may have heard the news: The Cubs finally broke their 108-year-old curse with a nail-biting World Series win against the Cleveland Indians last night.

The championship marked the first time the team had made it to the World Series since 1945, and their first victory since 1908 (to put that in context, Thomas Edison, Franz Ferdinand, and Al Capone were all around for that W). To commemorate the historic triumph, The Chicago Tribune dug through their archives to republish their front page story from October 15, 1908.

The cover, which reads “Cubs supreme in baseball world,” is reminiscent of a time when life was good for Chicago sports fans. From 1906 to 1908, the Cubs appeared in three consecutive World Series, becoming the first major league team to do so. The article reporting their 1908 win reads:

“Not in the memory of this generation of fans has any team ever won its honors with greater credit than that which belongs to Frank Chance’s warriors. Not in a thousand years has a team been compelled to fight as hard for its titles as the Chicago team, which won the National league pennant twice inside of five days under the most trying circumstances.”

Any Cubs fans can tell you that it hasn’t exactly been smooth travels for the team since. A number of supposed curses, including one connected to a famous, smelly goat, have been blamed for the Cubs’ decades-long bad luck streak. But after more than a century of heartbreak, the loyalty of their fans has finally paid off. In 1908, the Tribune wrote, “What those gray clad modest young warriors have accomplished will be remembered longer than any of them lives,” a statement that rings just as true today.

[h/t The Chicago Tribune]


November 3, 2016 – 11:45am

A New Type of Wheelchair Is Designed for Dancers

Most wheelchair designs are often focused around users’ comfort in everyday use, promising a better fit or a greater ease of movement. But wheelchair users want to do more than just move around without getting chafed. One wheelchair design in development supports dancers who can’t necessarily perform without mechanical aid. Science Friday reports that a University of South Florida-born power wheelchair is made to allow its users to move expressively, giving them the freedom of movement that dancing requires.

Wheelchair dance isn’t a new phenomenon. In fact, for some people, dancing is more than just sport. It’s a form of therapy. Parkinson’s patients, for instance, often show symptom improvement after regular dance training. But performers often use chairs that are rigid and not designed for modern dance. The Rolling Dance Chair, by contrast, has greater flexibility to move in any direction. And when users move, the chair follows.

Through a wireless connection with the accelerometer and other motion sensors on the user’s phone, the chair can sense the person is leaning, and lean with them. The wheels are tucked away to prevent costumes from getting tangled. And like a Segway (which partially served as a design precedent), the chair moves faster the more the user leans.

Merry Lynn Morris, the inventor, has been working on the dance chair for five years, and it’s the subject of five different patents. She began working on the device while working with dancers with disabilities who couldn’t control their lower bodies, but whose upper bodies were strong enough that the chairs they were using did more to hinder their performance than aid it.

The first prototype debuted in 2013, but Morris and her colleagues are working on a new one with hopes to put it on the commercial market. Right now, the seat isn’t powered to rotate or adjust the height, requiring manual manipulation, and it needs better wheels to make it quieter on all surfaces.

[h/t Science Friday]

Header image by Manjunath Kiran/AFP/Getty Images


November 3, 2016 – 11:30am